✦ JETSONSAGERESEARCH DESKSTUDY COMPARISON · NOV 2026

POWER, CARBON & AI

The same history.
Very different outlooks.

Compare emissions and electricity demand through 2030. Choose a tab, then highlight a study.

THE SHARED EMISSIONS CHART

Historical emissions → reported outlooks

2021—2030

One numeric scale, different accounting: CO₂ and CO₂e remain labeled as reported. Rhodium uses its own baseline; Sierra includes off-grid sources. These are not interchangeable national totals.

U.S. power emissions history and study endpoints, 2021 to 2030A solid EIA CO₂ history ends at 1,485 million metric tons in 2025. Sierra’s dashed connector starts at an inferred 1,482 in 2025 and ends at 2,100 Mt CO₂ in 2030. NC State’s dashed core-case connectors start at the paper’s 2022 historical comparator, 1,532 Mt CO₂, and end at 1,720, 1,860 and 1,950 in 2030. Rhodium’s own 1,534 Mt CO₂e baseline connects to an approximate 2030 range of 1,120 to 1,197. Dashed connectors are illustrative, not annual study results.
Solid = reported historyDashed = illustrative endpoint connector, not annual study values

INSPECT THE EVIDENCE

What each study can tell us

STRENGTH

LIMITATION

Exact plotted data, calculations & coverage

How the branches begin

EIA’s historical CO₂ total is context, not a calibration target for every model. Sierra’s baseline is inferred from rounded reporting and is shown as an open diamond. Rhodium’s CO₂e baseline is shown as a separate square, 49 Mt above EIA’s CO₂ point; the gap is not a measured emissions addition. No conversion or vertical shift has been applied. NC State’s connectors begin at the paper’s 2022 historical comparator of 1,532 Mt CO₂, alongside EIA’s separate 1,539 Mt value for that year; they do not imply annual results from 2022 to 2030.

Sierra’s internal model is available here through Bloomberg reporting, not a published model workbook. The 2030 Rhodium interval is calculated from rounded reported values and is a scenario envelope, not a confidence interval. The chart connects endpoints only; it supplies no invented annual results.

Rhodium’s reported 2040 power-sector cases are 798 / 930 / 1,169 Mt CO₂e (low / mid / high), outside this chart’s 2030 horizon. Source: Taking Stock 2026, Figure 2 ↗.

Sources reviewed November 3, 2026. Download the plotted data & source ledger ↓