{ "reviewed": "2026-11-03", "historical": [ [ 2021, 1553 ], [ 2022, 1539 ], [ 2023, 1422 ], [ 2024, 1427 ], [ 2025, 1485 ] ], "plotted": { "sierra": { "baseline": 1482, "endpoint": 2100 }, "rhodium": { "baseline": 1534, "low": 1119.82, "high": 1196.52 }, "ncstate": { "comparatorYear": 2022, "comparator": 1532, "low": 1720, "mid": 1860, "high": 1950, "noDemand2030": 1530 } }, "studies": { "sierra": { "short": "Sierra Club", "kind": "Absolute CO₂", "type": "REPORTED 2030 ESTIMATE", "title": "Sierra Club", "unit": "MT CO₂ / YEAR", "scope": "Reported annual U.S. power emissions estimate, including sources not directly linked to the grid. Boundary details are not fully available.", "data": [ { "year": 2025, "value": 1482, "label": "Implied baseline ≈1,482", "note": "Derived as reported 2,100 minus 618; rounded, not an independently reported exact baseline" }, { "year": 2030, "value": 2100, "label": "Reported estimate", "note": "2.1 billion metric tons, rounded" } ], "caption": "The Sierra baseline is approximately 1,482 Mt, derived from rounded reporting (2,100 minus 618). EIA’s separate historical value is 1,485 Mt. The dashed connector is illustrative, not an annual model path; Sierra’s wider boundary is not identical to EIA’s sector.", "strength": "Flags a potential contribution from dedicated fossil generation beyond the grid.", "limit": "An internal model without published project-level completion and operating assumptions cannot be independently audited from the reporting.", "url": "https://amp.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2026/10/29/890656.htm", "source": "Bloomberg reporting, October 29, 2026", "metric": "2,100 Mt CO₂ in 2030", "metricNote": "≈42% above its inferred 2025 baseline of ≈1,482 Mt", "chartNote": "Its dashed branch rises from ≈1,482 to 2,100 Mt CO₂. The baseline is inferred; the estimate includes off-grid generation.", "verification": "Endpoint and increment checked against Bloomberg reporting republished by Insurance Journal. The internal source model was not available for audit." }, "rhodium": { "short": "Rhodium", "kind": "Absolute CO₂e", "type": "GRID-LEVEL EMISSIONS OUTLOOK", "title": "Rhodium Group", "unit": "MT CO₂e / YEAR", "scope": "U.S. power-sector greenhouse gas emissions expressed as CO₂ equivalent. Behind-the-meter data-center generation is outside the grid-level analysis.", "data": [ { "year": 2025, "value": 1534, "label": "Reported 2025", "note": "Figure 2, rounded" }, { "year": 2030, "low": 1120, "high": 1197, "label": "Calculated 2030 range", "note": "Approximate; calculated from 2025 and stated 22–27% decline" }, { "year": 2040, "value": 798, "label": "Low case", "note": "Reported modeled case" }, { "year": 2040, "value": 930, "label": "Mid case", "note": "Reported modeled case" }, { "year": 2040, "value": 1169, "label": "High case", "note": "Reported modeled case" } ], "caption": "The 2030 interval is calculated from rounded numbers, not a tabulated model output. The 2040 cases are scenarios, not probability bounds. No annual path is inferred.", "strength": "Models capacity and dispatch under current policy, with alternative fuel prices and technology costs.", "limit": "Uses one data-center demand path across its cases, assumes demand is met and excludes dedicated behind-the-meter supply from this grid analysis. Its CO₂e boundary differs from EIA CO₂.", "url": "https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Taking-Stock-2026.pdf", "source": "Rhodium report, Figure 2 and p. 15", "metric": "≈1,120–1,197 Mt CO₂e in 2030", "metricNote": "Calculated: 1,534 × (1 − 27%) to 1,534 × (1 − 22%)", "chartNote": "Its dashed envelope starts at its own 1,534 Mt CO₂e baseline. It is a grid model; dedicated behind-the-meter supply is excluded.", "verification": "2025 and 2040 checked in Figure 2; 2030 percentage in p. 15; grid boundary in p. 14." }, "eia": { "short": "EIA history", "kind": "Historical CO₂", "type": "HISTORICAL BASELINE", "title": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "unit": "MT CO₂ / YEAR", "scope": "U.S. electric-power-sector energy-related CO₂. This is an operator classification, not all electricity consumed or all on-site generation.", "data": [ { "year": 2021, "value": 1553, "label": "2021" }, { "year": 2022, "value": 1539, "label": "2022" }, { "year": 2023, "value": 1422, "label": "2023" }, { "year": 2024, "value": 1427, "label": "2024" }, { "year": 2025, "value": 1485, "label": "2025", "note": "Preliminary" } ], "caption": "These are historical, independently rounded annual values from one EIA release. The connected line is historical, not a projection.", "strength": "Official annual historical series provides a consistent emissions anchor.", "limit": "The 2025 value is preliminary. This is not a forecast and does not capture every source of on-site generation.", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/", "source": "EIA energy-related carbon emissions, Table 1", "metric": "1,485 Mt CO₂ in 2025", "metricNote": "Preliminary · 2024: 1,427 Mt CO₂", "chartNote": "The solid historical line stays visible for every selection. Its 2025 point is 1,485 Mt CO₂; it is not a study forecast.", "verification": "All five annual points checked against EIA Table 1, July 21, 2026 release." }, "ncstate": { "short": "NC State", "kind": "Absolute CO₂", "type": "2030 MODEL SCENARIOS", "title": "North Carolina State University", "unit": "Mt CO₂ / YEAR", "scope": "Contiguous U.S. power-system model, including data centers and cryptocurrency. The paper supplies absolute totals as well as counterfactual percentage effects.", "data": [ { "year": 2022, "value": 1532, "label": "Paper’s historical comparator, not a 2025 model baseline" }, { "year": 2030, "value": 1720, "label": "Core low demand" }, { "year": 2030, "value": 1860, "label": "Core mid demand" }, { "year": 2030, "value": 1950, "label": "Core high demand" }, { "year": 2030, "value": 1530, "label": "Core no-demand counterfactual, not history" } ], "caption": "Dashed lines illustrate the core 2030 endpoints from the paper’s reported 2022 comparator of 1,532 Mt. No annual path or 2025 value is inferred. The “up to 28%” result still compares 2030 demand and no-demand cases, not 2030 with history.", "strength": "Jointly models capacity expansion and hourly dispatch across 26 regions; publishes absolute CO₂ totals and demand, fuel-price and policy sensitivities.", "limit": "Core cases omit federal renewable incentives. Alternative policy and fuel-price cases differ. Its 2022 comparator and lower-48 grid boundary are not forced to match EIA history or Sierra’s dedicated-generation inventory.", "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae6c3d#erlae6c3dt3", "source": "Johnson et al., Environmental Research Letters · Table 3 and §3.4", "metric": "1,720 / 1,860 / 1,950 Mt CO₂ in 2030", "metricNote": "Core low / mid / high demand cases · Table 3", "chartNote": "Core 2030 totals are 1,720 / 1,860 / 1,950 Mt CO₂. Dashed connectors begin at the paper’s 2022 historical comparator, 1,532 Mt—not at an invented 2025 baseline.", "verification": "Absolute endpoints, historical comparator and counterfactual checked against Table 3 and §3.4 of the primary paper." }, "ucs": { "short": "UCS", "kind": "Incremental CO₂", "type": "2035 COUNTERFACTUAL", "title": "Union of Concerned Scientists", "unit": "Mt CO₂ / YEAR", "scope": "U.S. power-plant CO₂, comparing no-demand-growth with medium or high data-center demand in the same modeled 2035.", "data": [ { "year": 2035, "low": 229, "high": 342, "label": "Additional CO₂, not national total" } ], "caption": "The 19–29% result is an increment versus a future counterfactual, not a 19–29% change from observed 2025 emissions. Its 2035 horizon also differs from this chart.", "strength": "Compares demand and policy cases explicitly, showing how clean-energy policy changes the supply response.", "limit": "The verified increment cannot anchor a national total to EIA history without compatible absolute model data. Different policies are conditional futures.", "url": "https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2026-01/Data-Center-Power-Play-report-final.pdf", "source": "Data Center Power Play, pp. 3, 15 and 19", "metric": "+229–342 Mt CO₂ in 2035", "metricNote": "Additional emissions attributed to data-center demand under current policies", "chartNote": "No absolute branch: +229–342 Mt is an increment versus a modeled 2035 counterfactual, outside the chart’s 2030 horizon.", "verification": "Primary report checked; p. 15 identifies the medium-case comparison to no demand growth." }, "earthjustice": { "short": "Earthjustice", "kind": "Proposals · GW", "type": "PROPOSED CAPACITY, NOT EMISSIONS", "title": "Earthjustice / Better Data Center Project", "unit": "GW PROPOSED", "scope": "October 2026 inventory of proposed gas capacity associated with data-center power.", "data": [ { "year": 2026, "value": 177, "label": "Proposed gas capacity", "note": "Inventory of proposals, not operating plants" } ], "caption": "A proposal inventory is neither completed capacity nor a CO₂ forecast. No future path is inferred.", "strength": "Surfaces the scale of gas proposals and the potential for dedicated generation.", "limit": "Proposals may never operate; emissions also depend on completion, operating hours, efficiency and displaced generation.", "url": "https://earthjustice.org/feature/data-center-byop-energy-report", "source": "Earthjustice project inventory", "metric": "177 GW of planned gas capacity", "metricNote": "October 2026 inventory · proposals are not operating generation", "chartNote": "No national emissions line: proposed gas capacity has no verified completion date, operating profile or grid-displacement adjustment.", "verification": "Primary report page checked; 177 GW and approximately 80% gas share are reported there." }, "eip": { "short": "Environmental Integrity", "kind": "Plant inventory", "type": "PROPOSED PLANT INVENTORY", "title": "Environmental Integrity Project", "unit": "GW / ANNUAL GHG", "scope": "July 2026 inventory of dedicated gas proposals associated with data centers, not a total U.S. power-sector forecast.", "data": [ { "year": 2026, "value": 143, "label": "Proposed capacity (GW)" } ], "caption": "The primary landing page reports potential annual greenhouse gas pollution for proposed plants. We do not convert its “tons” into Mt CO₂ or add it to national totals.", "strength": "Traces specific plant proposals to public records and makes a project spreadsheet available.", "limit": "Proposals and permitted potential emissions do not establish actual annual operation. Overlap with Earthjustice and Sierra inputs prevents simply adding these inventories.", "url": "https://environmentalintegrity.org/reports/the-power-behind-ai/", "source": "The Power Behind AI, July 1, 2026", "metric": "143 GW across 74 planned gas plants", "metricNote": "662 million tons/year of potential GHG pollution, as described by the source", "chartNote": "No national line: this is a proposed-plant inventory and potential GHG amount, with overlap and operating assumptions unresolved.", "verification": "Primary report summary verified. The full report methods and proposed-plant operating assumptions were not independently audited." }, "queues": { "short": "Berkeley Lab queue", "kind": "Queue · GW", "type": "INTERCONNECTION CONTEXT, NOT EMISSIONS", "title": "Berkeley Lab · interconnection queue", "unit": "GW AT END OF 2025", "scope": "Solar and wind projects with draft or executed interconnection agreements at the end of 2025.", "data": [ { "year": 2025, "value": 256, "label": "Solar" }, { "year": 2025, "value": 76, "label": "Wind" } ], "caption": "These are capacities at one point in time, not completed plants, a demand forecast, or emissions.", "strength": "Shows the scale of more advanced projects and the importance of grid connections.", "limit": "Projects face financing, construction and location constraints. The totals serve many customers, not just data centers.", "url": "https://emp.lbl.gov/queues/", "source": "Berkeley Lab queue study", "metric": "256 GW solar · 76 GW wind", "metricNote": "With draft or executed interconnection agreements at end-2025", "chartNote": "No emissions line: advanced queue capacity is not operating energy, and these projects serve many customers.", "verification": "2026 Queued Up highlights checked, including 549 GW of total advanced capacity." }, "iea": { "short": "IEA", "kind": "Hourly supply", "type": "QUALITATIVE CONTEXT", "title": "International Energy Agency", "unit": "NO NUMERIC SERIES", "scope": "The cited IEA analysis discusses hourly clean-energy matching and the roles of wind, solar, storage, and dispatchable low-emissions supply.", "data": [], "caption": "The article cites this analysis for the challenge of matching supply hour by hour, not for a comparable national emissions path.", "strength": "Identifies the hourly reliability problem that annual energy totals can obscure.", "limit": "The cited passage does not supply a comparable national 2030 CO₂ point or time series.", "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3179f7f8-01f6-4dd6-bffa-c9f7b73f1dc9/KeyQuestionsonEnergyandAI.pdf", "source": "IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI", "metric": "Match supply to demand hour by hour", "metricNote": "Annual clean-energy purchases do not ensure hourly clean supply", "chartNote": "No comparable emissions trajectory in the cited passage: hourly matching informs the supply assumptions a projection would need.", "verification": "Primary report, p. 46, procurement and hourly matching discussion checked." } }, "method": "One shared numeric scale, units and scopes preserved. NC State connectors begin at the paper historical 2022 comparator, not an invented 2025 value. Dashed connectors illustrate endpoints only; no annual study values are generated.", "demand_ledger": "demand-data.json" }