{
  "reviewed": "2026-11-03",
  "unit": "TWh/year",
  "studies": {
    "berkeley": {
      "title": "Berkeley Lab · 2025 update",
      "short": "Berkeley Lab",
      "color": "#30644f",
      "scope": "U.S. data centers, excluding cryptocurrency mining. The 2025 update was published in June 2026; 2024 is its last historical year.",
      "historical": [
        [
          2024,
          192
        ]
      ],
      "reference": [
        [
          2024,
          192
        ],
        [
          2028,
          464
        ],
        [
          2030,
          649
        ]
      ],
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "name": "Compounded low",
          "value": 521
        },
        {
          "name": "Consolidated deployment",
          "value": 578
        },
        {
          "name": "Low accelerator lifetime",
          "value": 590
        },
        {
          "name": "Reference",
          "value": 649
        },
        {
          "name": "High ASIC",
          "value": 664
        },
        {
          "name": "High inference energy",
          "value": 782
        },
        {
          "name": "Compounded high",
          "value": 843
        }
      ],
      "metric": "521–843 TWh in 2030",
      "metricNote": "649 reference · 192 TWh historical estimate in 2024 · 464 reference in 2028",
      "note": "The 2024 anchor is 192 TWh; the 2030 reference is 649, with a 521–843 compounded range. Dashed connectors are illustrative, not annual study values.",
      "strength": "Builds demand from equipment shipments, server use and cooling; tests specific assumptions and combined uncertainty.",
      "limit": "Excludes cryptocurrency. Equipment shipments, utilization and chip lifetimes are uncertain; these scenarios are not probabilities. EPRI history is not Berkeley history.",
      "caption": "All seven reported 2030 outcomes are visible. Only the verified 2024 historical point and 2028 reference point are used; missing annual values are not invented.",
      "url": "https://www.energy.gov/documents/united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report-2025-update",
      "source": "Berkeley Lab, pp. 5, 8–9, Table 2"
    },
    "epri": {
      "title": "EPRI · Powering Intelligence 2026",
      "short": "EPRI",
      "color": "#b65125",
      "scope": "U.S. small and large data centers, including cryptocurrency mining. Its dashboard supplies annual history for 2021–2024 and three modeled annual series starting in 2024.",
      "historical": [
        [
          2021,
          91.4
        ],
        [
          2022,
          116.0
        ],
        [
          2023,
          141.0
        ],
        [
          2024,
          184.0
        ]
      ],
      "cases": {
        "Low": [
          [
            2024,
            177.0
          ],
          [
            2025,
            212.0
          ],
          [
            2026,
            251.0
          ],
          [
            2027,
            296.0
          ],
          [
            2028,
            333.0
          ],
          [
            2029,
            359.0
          ],
          [
            2030,
            384.0
          ]
        ],
        "Medium": [
          [
            2024,
            184.0
          ],
          [
            2025,
            235.0
          ],
          [
            2026,
            301.0
          ],
          [
            2027,
            380.0
          ],
          [
            2028,
            459.0
          ],
          [
            2029,
            529.0
          ],
          [
            2030,
            596.0
          ]
        ],
        "High": [
          [
            2024,
            192.0
          ],
          [
            2025,
            258.0
          ],
          [
            2026,
            348.0
          ],
          [
            2027,
            459.0
          ],
          [
            2028,
            578.0
          ],
          [
            2029,
            687.0
          ],
          [
            2030,
            794.0
          ]
        ]
      },
      "metric": "384 / 596 / 794 TWh in 2030",
      "metricNote": "Low / medium / high · dashboard values as displayed",
      "note": "Published annual series remain solid. Each case keeps its own 2024 anchor: 177 / 184 / 192 TWh. History is 91.4 TWh in 2021 to 184 in 2024; cryptocurrency is included.",
      "strength": "Publishes annual scenario values; accounts for facility ramp-up, cooling efficiency and utilization, with state electricity-sales checks.",
      "limit": "Includes cryptocurrency, unlike Berkeley Lab. Project completion and operating load remain uncertain. Scenario ranges are not probability bounds.",
      "caption": "This graph consistently uses the dashboard’s annual values. The report narrative gives 383 / 596 / 793 TWh for 2030, approximately 1 TWh lower at the endpoints; both source presentations are disclosed rather than combined.",
      "url": "https://powering-intelligence.epri.com/dashboard/",
      "source": "EPRI U.S. Total dashboard · Annual Energy (TWh)",
      "narrativeUrl": "https://powering-intelligence.epri.com/annual-peak-use.html",
      "narrative2030": [
        383,
        596,
        793
      ]
    }
  }
}